Tournament Enigma: A New Favorite Emerges From the Bench
The 2025 Club World Cup shattered every prediction, turning the traditional Mbappé–Haaland–Kane duel into a true tournament detective show. The main protagonist unexpectedly became 20-year-old Real Madrid academy graduate Gonzalo García. The youngster first took the field as an emergency “band-aid” for the ailing Mbappé, but ended up scoring a brace in the opening play-off round and soaring to the top of the scoring chart.
Ahead of the semi-finals García remains the only member of the leading quartet who can still add to his tally: Los Blancos have not been eliminated while Ángel Di María, Marcos Leonardo and Serhou Guirassy are already packing their bags. Yet Gonzalo’s place in the starting XI is far from guaranteed. Kylian Mbappé, who came on for just half an hour against Borussia Dortmund and scored the winner, now longs to start against his former club from the first minute. If the Frenchman gets the green light from the coach, García risks spending most of the decisive matches on the bench.
Mbappé Factor: How One Hat-Trick Can Turn the Table
Psychology here matters no less than statistics. For Mbappé, the match against PSG is a personal mission: to prove to the Parisians that they let him go too soon. Three goals in the remaining two games is an ambitious target but entirely realistic for the reigning Golden Boot holder. Bookmakers cautiously factor in this risk: before the semi-finals García’s chances are rated at 50 %, while Mbappé’s potential surge is given 25 %.
Another candidate coming “from the shadows” is Pedro Neto (Chelsea). The Portuguese already has three goals to his name and faces a less formidable opponent—Fluminense rather than a European giant. His probability of taking the trophy hovers around 10 %.
Three Who Are Out but Still Dangerous
Di María, Leonardo and Guirassy have left the tournament, yet the CWC regulations lack additional tie-breakers (minutes played, assists, penalties, etc.), so their four goals could remain out of reach. Closing that gap over one or two matches will not be easy even for Mbappé. And if García goes scoreless in the semi-final, we will again see a “chessboard” scenario where every accurate strike can reshuffle the leaders.
How Odds Work: The Mathematics Romantics Forget
Fans eagerly back the favorite expecting to double their stake, but they overlook a sly clause in the bookmakers’ rules: if several players share the award, the stated odds are divided proportionally. The same story happened at Euro 2024, when Harry Kane, Dani Olmo, Cody Gakpo, Jamal Musiala, Ivan Schranz and Giorgi Mikautadze each scored three goals. A ticket on Gakpo with odds of 10.00 eventually shrank to 1.67—modest profit, immense emotions.
The script could repeat itself for García. Suppose the Madrid forward finishes the tournament with four goals and three more players catch up with him. The tempting 2.00 odds automatically turn into 0.50: half the stake is forfeited even though the outcome “won.”
History Loves Serial Dramas: Possible End-Game Scenarios
- García’s Solo Triumph. Real Madrid reach the final, the cantera graduate starts at least one match and scores again. Five goals make him the undisputed king of the tournament.
- Mbappé’s Late Surge. The Frenchman starts, hits top gear and records a classic hat-trick—lifting the crystal Golden Boot trophy.
- Collective Podium. Neither García nor Mbappé score, and Pedro Neto unexpectedly joins the four-goal group. We get a quartet of winners and minimal payouts on the bets.
- Sensational Breakthrough. One of the players with a single goal—Bellingham, Kvaratskhelia or Palmer—explodes, bags a poker and storms to the summit. The chance is tiny, but CWC history has seen even crazier finales.
Conclusion: Brace for Another Photo Finish
The absence of a third-place play-off, Mbappé’s heightened motivation and the García-joker twist keep the intrigue alive until the final whistle. Bookmakers are already trimming odds in real time to avoid losses, while fans can only count the minutes and look around: who will score that decisive goal?
The award may once again head to several addresses at once, and then the biggest winners will be us—the spectators who have witnessed a show worthy of club football legends.
