For many bettors, classic outcomes like match winner, total or handicap are no longer enough. Bookmakers offer dozens of "micro-markets" that allow you to target the very first episodes of a game. One of these options is the bet on first ball possession (or puck possession in hockey). It is a fast market where the outcome is decided literally in the opening seconds of the game, yet it still requires analysis rather than blind intuition. Let’s break down how this market works, what to look at, and when it can truly be an interesting option.
Table of Contents
- What Is a First Ball Possession Bet
- In Which Sports This Market Appears
- What to Look at When Analyzing First Possession
- Example of a First Possession Bet in Football
- Example of a First Puck Possession Bet in Hockey
- How to Use This Market Wisely
- Why First Possession Bets Can Become Your Tool
What Is a First Ball Possession Bet
A first ball possession bet is a prediction on which team will be the first to gain control of the ball (or puck) after the opening whistle.
Depending on the sport, this market can be formulated in different ways:
- in football – which team will kick off from the center spot or which side will first gain controlled possession after the opening play;
- in hockey – which team will win the opening faceoff and therefore be the first to control the puck;
- in American football – which team will have possession on the first play (the first drive after the opening kickoff).
Essentially, you are trying to predict which team will start the game more actively or gain an advantage thanks to the coin toss, tactics and style of play. Even though the outcome is decided very quickly, you can approach this market in a systematic way.
In Which Sports This Market Appears
First possession bets are most often offered in sports where there is a clearly defined opening play:
- Football – coin toss before the match, choice of side and the right to take the opening kick;
- Ice Hockey – the opening faceoff in the center circle;
- American Football – the coin toss and the opening kickoff after which one team immediately goes on offense.
Sometimes a bookmaker can offer similar markets in other sports as well (for example, who will win the first jump ball), but the basic logic remains the same: you are betting on the very first phase of possession.
What to Look at When Analyzing First Possession
Although the result of the opening play may seem random, there are several factors that help you build a more meaningful prediction.
1. Current Form and Level of the Teams
A team that is currently in good shape often imposes its football (or hockey) on the opponent from the very first minutes. It is important to:
- look at the recent run of matches;
- pay attention to how active the team is in the opening segments – pressing, possession, the number of attacks at the start of the game;
- take into account the level of the opponents: a league leader facing an outsider often dominates right from the kick-off.
2. First Possession Statistics
If the bookmaker or statistical websites provide specific data on first ball or puck possession, this is a significant advantage. Pay attention to:
- which team more often starts from the center spot in football;
- which team wins faceoffs more frequently in hockey;
- how first possessions are distributed over the season – whether there is a stable trend.
Sometimes you can see that one team regularly wins the opening episodes thanks to prepared set plays or a high-level center player (in hockey and American football).
3. Tactics and Style of Play
The coach’s football philosophy has a direct impact on how the team enters the match:
- aggressive pressing and a focus on an early goal usually mean an attempt to gain possession immediately;
- a more cautious, defensive style may indicate a willingness to concede the initiative to the opponent, even with the right to kick off;
- in hockey, the quality of the center players on faceoffs is crucial: a strong center with good faceoff stats gives the team a serious edge.
4. Home Advantage and Motivation
The home team is more likely to start the game aggressively – the pressure from the stands and the psychological momentum have a real impact. In addition, you should factor in:
- the importance of the match (derby, knockout game, title race or relegation battle);
- recent results: after a heavy defeat, a team may want to “react” and start the game with maximum intensity, trying to win the ball immediately.
5. Coin Toss and Competition Rules
In some sports, the first drive depends directly on the coin toss. It is important to understand:
- how exactly the team that starts with the ball is determined;
- whether you have any information about the captain’s typical choices (in American football, whether they prefer to receive the ball or choose the side of the field);
- how the bookmaker interprets the market: a “first ball possession” bet can be tied either to the very start of the game or to the first real game episode after the kick-off.
Example of a First Possession Bet in Football
Let’s imagine a match between Bologna and Napoli.
You study the stats and see that in most home games Bologna:
- either wins the coin toss and chooses to kick off;
- or goes into aggressive pressing from the first minutes and quickly regains possession.
In addition, the team is in good form and the stadium provides powerful support. The bookmaker offers a market "which team will be the first to gain ball possession" with an attractive price on the hosts.
You place a bet on Bologna to get the first possession. If the match starts with the home side taking the kick-off from the center spot, your prediction is correct. If the ball goes to the visitors immediately after the opening whistle, your bet loses.
Example of a First Puck Possession Bet in Hockey
Now let’s move to the ice and take a hypothetical game between Zurich Lions and Bern in the Switzerland championship.
The statistics show that:
- Zurich’s center forward wins most of the opening faceoffs;
- the team trains to start periods with a quick zone entry and a shot on goal;
- on home ice, Zurich looks very aggressive from the very first seconds.
The bookmaker offers a market like "which team will first control the puck" or "who will win the opening faceoff". You choose Zurich Lions. If, after the faceoff, the puck remains under the control of the home players, your bet wins even if the episode does not lead to a goal.
How to Use This Market Wisely
A first ball possession bet may look entertaining and “fast”, but you should treat it as seriously as any other type of outcome.
Some useful recommendations:
- Don’t bet blindly. Even if the market looks random, analyzing form, statistics and style of play significantly increases your chances.
- Stake a small percentage of your bankroll. This is a dynamic market with high variance, so it is not sensible to go in with large stakes.
- Don’t try to recover losses with “quick” bets. The fact that the result is decided in a few seconds does not make this market a tool for instant recovery of lost money.
- Collect your own statistics. If you follow specific leagues or teams regularly, log how they enter games. Over time, you’ll notice patterns that are not visible in general stats.
Why First Possession Bets Can Become Your Tool
The first possession market is suitable for those who closely follow games and enjoy looking for non-standard opportunities. Here, the following skills are especially valuable:
- understanding the psychology of teams;
- knowledge of tactical nuances;
- the ability to work with narrow, specific statistics.
If you are ready to invest time in analysis instead of simply “guessing”, such bets can become an interesting addition to your overall strategy. Combine objective data with careful bankroll management – and then even such a fast outcome as first ball possession will stop being a simple lottery and turn into another well-planned tool in your game against the bookmaker.
