Penalties in football are a separate discipline with their own logic, nerve, and heroes who can stay “silent” for 120 minutes and then decide everything with one kick. For a bettor, the “H by Penalties” bet is appealing because it cuts out the noise: you don’t have to guess the score, the flow of the halves, or the goalscorer. The only thing that matters is that the match reaches a shootout and the first team on the book’s listing wins right there.
What “H by Penalties” Means and Why It’s Not the Same as “H” or “Team 1 to Advance”
“H by Penalties” is a market that is settled strictly by the result of the penalty shootout. That means two conditions must happen:
- there is no winner after regulation time and extra time (if extra time is предусмотрено by the competition rules);
- the first team listed (Team No. 1) wins the shootout.
An important nuance: “the first team” is not always the “home side” in the familiar sense. In finals on neutral ground or matches where “home status” is conditional, you should focus on how teams are listed by the bookmaker (Team 1 / Team 2).
To avoid mixing up markets:
- “H” (Team 1 to win) is most often settled over 90 minutes plus stoppage time—without extra time and penalties unless the bookmaker’s rules explicitly say otherwise. For example, exchanges/sportsbooks often apply a “90 minutes” rule, where extra time and penalties do not count.
- “Team 1 to Advance” is a bet on Team No. 1 simply progressing in the bracket, regardless of whether it happens in regulation time, extra time, or by Penalties.
- “H by Penalties” is the narrowest option: it wins only if the match goes to a shootout and Team No. 1 wins that shootout.
Where Penalties Are Possible: a Filter by Tournaments and Regulations
The first step in any penalties-related bet is checking the specific match regulations. A shootout is used where a draw “doesn’t fit” the format: playoffs, cup competitions, some super cups, and decisive knockout ties.
A basic example in European competitions: if the tie is level, two 15-minute extra-time periods are played; if it remains level, a penalty shootout is held to determine the winner/qualifier.
The shootout itself (“kicks from the penalty mark”) follows a procedure: teams alternate kicks, usually five each, then “sudden death” if the scores remain level.
How to Find a Match That Can Go All the Way to a Shootout
The “H by Penalties” bet combines two predictions in one: there will be a shootout and Team No. 1 will win it. That’s why match selection is half the job.
What to look at before kick-off:
1) Evenly matched teams and a “tight” style
If the prices for the main outcomes are close and the total line is low, the market (and the math) points to a cautious game. Without a clear edge, teams more often drift into “chess,” minimizing risk—especially in playoffs.
2) A preference for control, not chaos
Teams that can maintain structure (compact spacing between lines, discipline after losing the ball) more often end up at 0–0 / 1–1 and try not to be the first to open up.
3) Context over “beauty”
In matches where the cost of a mistake is huge (a second leg, a quarter-final, a semi-final), managerial pragmatism noticeably increases the likelihood of extra time.
4) Live scenario check
Sometimes it’s more logical to enter this market not before the first whistle, but after 60–75 minutes. If the tempo is low, clear chances are scarce, and neither side increases risk, the overall shootout probability rises. But watch red cards: a sending-off often flips the script—turning “playing for penalties” into pure survival, or, наоборот, allowing the favourite to finish it inside regulation.
The Second Half of the Equation: Why Team No. 1 Must Win the Shootout
Even if the match “smells” like penalties, that doesn’t automatically mean “H by Penalties.” Next comes assessing who is stronger in a short-format pressure test.
What really matters:
The goalkeeper and their profile
Some keepers are especially good in duels: they read the pause, don’t “go early,” make saves with their feet, and stay composed. Sometimes one such goalkeeper is worth several percentage points of probability.
Kicker order and quality of takers
A shootout isn’t only about striking technique—it’s also about sequence. If Team No. 1 has 4–5 confident takers (and the coach regularly trusts them with penalties), that’s a major plus.
Psychology and big-match experience
In playoffs, some teams can “dry out” a match for 120 minutes but panic in a shootout. Others look ordinary for 120 minutes, then operate like a machine by Penalties.
Home factor: not a myth, but not a guarantee either
If Team No. 1 is truly playing at home (and not just “nominally” listed first), crowd pressure can help both takers and goalkeeper. But sometimes it becomes extra weight—you have to read it in context.
High-Profile Stories Where “H by Penalties” Would Have Been Spot On
To see the mechanics of this bet more clearly, it helps to recall matches where a shootout genuinely became the “default scenario,” and the first team handled the pressure.
Atlético Madrid — Inter: playoffs, second leg, the shootout as the decider
In the UEFA Champions League Round of 16, the second leg ended with the tie decided by penalties, and Atlético Madrid (Team No. 1 in the listing) progressed by winning the shootout.
This is an example where home advantage, a tight game, and the goalkeeper’s role in the shootout formed a clear picture.
Portugal — England, Euro 2004: nerves over status
The quarter-final went to a shootout, and Portugal (the first team in the match listing) won by Penalties.
It’s a strong illustration of how, in major tournaments, teams can consciously steer a match toward a “lottery” when opening up looks too dangerous.
Italy — Spain, Euro 2020: an exam in composure
The semi-final reached penalties, and Italy (Team No. 1) won the shootout to book a place in the final.
Practice: How to Bet “H by Penalties” Without Mixing Up Markets
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Always check how your sportsbook settles this exact market.
In some places, “match winner” means 90 minutes only, while penalties are offered as a separate market.And some “win by Penalties” rules explicitly state: if there is no shootout, the bet loses (or may be settled differently—depending on the operator).
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Don’t replace “H by Penalties” with “to advance” if what you want is the price on the shootout. “To advance” is broader and often lower-priced, but the winning conditions are different.
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Keep bankroll discipline. The market is narrow, the event volatility is high, and the variance is brutal: one deflection in extra time—and there may be no shootout at all.
When “H by Penalties” Becomes a Sensible Choice
This bet works best as a targeted tool when three things align:
- the match can realistically reach 120 minutes (regulations + style);
- Team No. 1 looks steadier in the “pressure phase” (goalkeeper, takers, experience);
- the market offers a fair price for a rare scenario.
“H by Penalties” isn’t a bet about romance or dominance—it’s about discipline: filtering the right match, not confusing markets, understanding whose “shootout module” is stronger, and not turning a rare outcome into a daily habit.
