Play-offs, cup ties and finals are exactly where football most often turns into a real thriller. Teams are cautious, do not want to take unnecessary risks, and sometimes the fate of the match is decided by the lottery of a penalty shootout. Bookmakers have long turned this scenario into a separate betting market, and one of the narrowest yet most intriguing options is the 'team 2 to win on penalties' bet – that is, the away side’s triumph specifically in the post-match penalty series. Let’s break down what this outcome is, when it makes sense, and how to approach it as cool-headed as possible.
Table Of Contents
- What The 'Team 2 To Win On Penalties' Bet Means
- How To Identify Matches Likely To Go To Penalties
- High-Profile Examples Where 'A On Penalties' Would Have Been Perfect
- Practical Tips For Betting On 'Team 2 To Win On Penalties'
- When The 'Team 2 To Win On Penalties' Strategy Can Be Useful
What The 'Team 2 To Win On Penalties' Bet Means
Under the 'team 2 to win on penalties' outcome we mean a specific type of market where you are not interested in the score after regular time or even the result after extra time. What matters is only the outcome of the penalty shootout. The bet wins in just one scenario:
- the match does not produce a winner in either regular time or extra time;
- the game goes to a post-match penalty shootout;
- in that shootout, the second team (the nominal away side, '2' in the bookmaker’s line) comes out on top.
It is important to understand how this market differs from other similar outcomes:
- 'Team 2 To Win In The Match' – the result is settled based on regular time (sometimes including extra time; you must check the rules of the particular bookmaker);
- 'Team 2 To Qualify' – this is a bet on the second team simply progressing to the next round of the tournament bracket, regardless of whether they do it in regular time, in extra time or via penalties;
- 'Team 2 To Win On Penalties' – wins only when the winner is determined by a specific method: the match must be decided in a penalty shootout and it must be the second team that wins it.
Because this outcome is so narrow and specific, the odds on it are usually very high. But high numbers always come with serious risk, so you should not enter this market without proper analysis and logic.
How To Identify Matches Likely To Go To Penalties
The key task for a bettor considering a 'team 2 to win on penalties' outcome is to select matches where the probability of a draw after 120 minutes is higher than average. You can assess this using several parameters.
1. Competition And Stage
This bet only makes sense where a penalty shootout is actually possible under the rules:
- domestic cups;
- super cups;
- tournament play-offs (continental and international competitions);
- decisive stages where the regulations do not allow a draw after two halves and a winner must be determined.
If the game is in a group stage and a draw suits both teams, there will simply be no penalties – such a match can be discarded immediately.
2. Balance Of Power And Playing Style
The closer the teams are in terms of quality, the higher the chance that neither side will be able to pull out a win in the time allotted by the rules. Signs of an 'even' match include:
- similar odds on H/D/A outcomes in the main line;
- a low line on the overall total (indicating expectations of a tight, low-scoring game);
- coaches who are known for a pragmatic, cautious approach.
If both teams like to play from a solid defensive shape, focus primarily on not conceding and rarely get involved in goal-filled shootouts, the likelihood that the game will be dragged into extra time and then to penalties increases noticeably.
3. Head-To-Head Record And Recent Form
Pay attention to the following:
- how often these two sides draw when they meet;
- the average total number of goals in their head-to-head games;
- the teams’ recent form: how many times they have finished 0–0, 1–1, 2–2 and so on in their latest matches.
If both teams have been drawing frequently and scoring few goals recently, this is an additional argument in favor of the 'they might drag it all the way to a shootout' scenario.
4. Context And Psychology
The importance of the tie strongly influences how teams behave:
- in finals and decisive play-off stages, coaches often prefer to avoid taking risks;
- when the price of a mistake is enormous (for example, a World Cup qualifier or a decisive play-off tie), football becomes as cautious as possible;
- if one team is a clear favorite and the other is focused on destroying play and counterattacking, the underdog may from the outset be aiming to 'drag it to the lottery' of a penalty shootout.
Taken together, all these factors help you see that this particular match could theoretically end in a penalty shootout.
High-Profile Examples Where 'A On Penalties' Would Have Been Perfect
It is easier to understand how this outcome works by looking at concrete matches that many people remember.
Champions League Final: Chelsea vs Manchester United
This is a classic example of a decisive match where a 'team 2 to win on penalties' bet would have been justified. The game was incredibly tight and tense, and neither regular time nor extra time produced a winner. Everything was settled by an 11-meter marathon, in which Manchester United – the second team in the line – proved more successful. A bettor who had backed 'team 2 to win on penalties' in advance would have landed a big win at a huge price.
2018 World Cup: Colombia vs England
This Round of 16 match at the 2018 World Cup followed a similar script. After a tough battle and exchanged goals, regular time ended in a draw, and the teams could not settle the tie in extra time, so it all went to a penalty shootout. There, England – again, the second team in the line – kept their nerve better. The 'team 2 to win on penalties' outcome would also have won in this match.
These examples show clearly that a penalty scenario is by no means exotic for major tournaments and final stages.
Practical Tips For Betting On 'Team 2 To Win On Penalties'
Even if you select matches well, this outcome remains highly risky. To keep the situation at least somewhat under control, it is worth following a few basic rules.
Analyze The Stats And The Regulations
- check the competition rules: does this particular round provide for a penalty shootout;
- study the teams’ form, their recent results and the frequency of draws;
- assess how often each team has taken matches to penalty shootouts in previous seasons.
Take Lineups And News Into Account
- the absence of a key striker or playmaker can shift the focus even more towards defense;
- conversely, the return of an attacking leader increases the chances that the team will try to finish the job earlier and avoid going to a lottery.
Follow The Match Live
Sometimes it makes more sense to enter this market not before kick-off but during the game, in live betting:
- if after the 60th–70th minute the score is still level and both teams are clearly being cautious, a bet on the game going to penalties becomes more logical;
- a red card can completely flip the script – most often the team reduced to ten stops thinking about penalties and simply tries to survive, or, on the contrary, the favorite uses the numerical advantage to finish the game off in regular time.
Manage Your Bankroll Carefully
High odds are not a reason to increase your stake size. On the contrary:
- place such bets with only a small fraction of your bankroll;
- do not try to chase losses specifically through big prices on penalties;
- treat these markets as occasional, targeted tools rather than as the core of your betting strategy.
When The 'Team 2 To Win On Penalties' Strategy Can Be Useful
A bet on the second team to win on penalties is neither a universal solution nor a fundamental strategy. It makes sense to use it in several specific situations:
- in finals and decisive stages where the teams are roughly equal and a cautious game is expected;
- when the favorite is the first team, but you believe the underdog can hold on to a draw and is mentally stronger in a shootout;
- as a rare addition to your overall strategy, not as a pattern you rely on all the time.
You can view this market as a way to take advantage of inflated odds in those matches where a penalty scenario genuinely looks logical. However, relying only on luck and 'gut feeling' is dangerous: the probability that a match will both go to penalties and be won specifically by the second team is still relatively low.
That is why the main principle for a bettor thinking about a 'team 2 to win on penalties' wager is simple: analyze thoroughly, allocate your bankroll carefully and remember that even the most logical scenario can be ruined by a single goal in extra time. If you treat this outcome as a risky but interesting tool in your arsenal rather than a 'gold mine', it can from time to time bring pleasant and fairly substantial returns.
