For many bettors, simply predicting who will win is no longer enough. It is much more interesting to forecast how exactly the favorite or underdog will achieve success: within 90 minutes or in extra time, by knockout or on points, with a clean sheet or after a tight battle. For this, bookmakers offer a separate market — the method of victory bet. It is riskier than a classic match result bet, but the potential payout is often noticeably higher.
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What Bookmakers Call the Method of Victory
A method of victory bet (or win method) is a wager in which you try to predict not only the winner, but also the form in which this win will be achieved. The bookmaker offers a list of possible scenarios in advance, and your task is to choose the one that best matches the expected flow of the match or fight.
Unlike a standard bet of type “H”, “A” or “first fighter to win”, here not only the fact of victory matters, but also the details:
- in which segment or time format the win will be secured;
- what the final score margin will be;
- in what way the fight will end (for combat sports);
- what the final score by sets or games will be (for tennis and other racket sports).
Precisely because of this additional condition, the odds on the method of victory are almost always higher than on a simple match result. However, the probability of such a bet winning is naturally lower, so it is not a market to enter without proper analysis.
Method of Victory in Different Sports
The set of options depends on the sport. In each discipline, bookmakers shape their lines according to the specifics of the tournaments and the competition format.
Football
For football matches, the most common options are:
- one of the teams to win in regular time (including added time, but excluding extra time and penalties);
- win in extra time;
- win in a penalty shootout;
- sometimes, a win by a specific goal margin (for example, “the first team to win by one goal”, “to win by two or more goals”).
Such markets are especially popular in knockout stages, where a draw is impossible and the teams are required to produce a winner at any cost.
Basketball
In basketball, the format is slightly different:
- win with a points handicap (for example, “Home team to win with a -6.5 handicap”);
- win in regular time;
- win in overtime (or, conversely, win without overtime).
Here, the team’s style is crucial: some teams are used to pushing the opponent until the end and winning by a wide margin, while others frequently play tight games and often drag the contest into overtime.
Tennis
In tennis, the method of victory market might look like this:
- win by sets 2–0 or 2–1 in women’s and men’s best-of-three matches;
- win 3–0, 3–1 or 3–2 in best-of-five matches;
- win with a specific game handicap.
Here it is important to understand how stable the player is on their own serve, how capable they are of coming back from a 0–1 deficit in sets, and how often they “finish off” an opponent without unnecessary delays.
Boxing and MMA
In combat sports, the method of victory is one of the key markets:
- win by knockout (KO);
- win by technical knockout (TKO);
- win by opponent’s submission (submission in MMA);
- win on points (unanimous decision);
- win on points (split or majority decision).
Bookmakers can group some of the options together, for example “KO/TKO/submission” as a single selection, and offer “on points” separately.
How to Approach a Method of Victory Prediction
For a method of victory bet to be well-founded, it is important not to limit yourself to a superficial look at the league table or the bookmaker’s odds. You need a comprehensive analysis.
Here is what you should pay attention to:
- Current Form and Statistics
Look not only at the bare result, but also at the content of the game. Does the team score a lot, do they often “grind down” opponents, how consistent is the leader in recent fights or matches? - Participants’ Styles
In combat sports, some fighters rely on aggression and powerful strikes, while others prefer to work for a points decision. In football, some teams play from a deep defensive block and rarely win by a big margin, while others impose a high tempo and strive for blowout wins. It is style that largely suggests the most likely victory scenario. - Head-to-Head History
Sometimes a particular matchup consistently produces similar storylines: tense endings, frequent overtimes, long boxing matches that go to the judges’ scorecards. If the same pattern has repeated several times in head-to-head meetings, this is a strong argument in favor of a specific method of victory bet. - Line-ups, Injuries, Motivation
The loss of a key striker can reduce the chances of a big win, while an injury to a knockout artist can increase the likelihood of a points victory. Don’t forget the tournament situation either: sometimes a narrow win is enough for the favorite, while in other situations only a convincing scoreline will really suit them. - Tournament Context
Play-offs, cup finals and rematches all influence strategy. In knockout games, teams may play more cautiously, increasing the probability of extra time or a penalty shootout. In rematches, fighters sometimes take more risks, raising the chances of an early stoppage.
Mistakes That Can Ruin Even Good Ideas
Even a solid analysis can be spoiled by a couple of classic mistakes:
- placing a “by eye” bet only because the odds look attractive;
- ignoring stylistic matchups in combat sports (“he is stronger, so he’ll get the knockout” simply doesn’t work that way);
- failing to account for the tournament format (for example, in two-legged ties a team may deliberately play more cautiously away from home);
- trying to guess both the result and the method of victory at the same time without a sufficient bankroll and proper risk management.
It is important to remember that the method of victory is a more complex market. It does not replace the basic betting options, but complements them and requires an even more careful approach to bankroll management.
What It Looks Like in Practice
Imagine you are looking at a cup match between PSG and Marseille. You are confident in the class of the Paris side, but you also assume that the opponent is capable of withstanding the pressure during regular time. In this situation, a method of victory bet on “PSG to win in extra time” can make sense. The bet will win only if regular time ends in a draw and PSG prove stronger specifically in extra time.
Another example is a boxing match between Dmitry Bivol and Dan Azeez. Bivol is known as a disciplined boxer with excellent distance control and a strong emphasis on technique. Because of this, many analysts expect him to win on points rather than by a brutal knockout. If you share this view, a logical method of victory bet would be “Bivol to win on points (by unanimous or split decision).”
A similar approach can be applied to MMA: if both fighters are durable, rarely finish their bouts early and are known for their technical grappling or striking, a bet on a points victory may be more reasonable than chasing the higher odds on a knockout or a submission.
How Well the Method of Victory Fits Your Strategy
Method of victory bets are a tool for those who are ready to dig deeper than the standard “who will win” question. This market rewards bettors who closely follow team and fighter styles, analyze statistics and context, and do not limit themselves to the favorite–underdog split in the odds.
Use the method of victory selectively: for matches and fights that you truly understand, not just because the numbers in the line look attractive. Combined with a sober assessment of risk and well-planned bankroll management, such bets can become a powerful addition to your overall betting strategy with a bookmaker.
