The situation around Mohamed Salah has suddenly escalated: three matches in a row without a place in the starting XI, an emotional interview after the draw with Leeds, and a wave of rumours about a possible departure as early as this winter. The Egyptian forward has found himself in an unusual role – not only as the team's leader but also as the central figure in transfer discussions. The question is no longer how important Salah is for Liverpool, but where exactly he will spend the coming months and years.
The Saudi Direction: The Main Favourite in the Race for Salah
Even before the Egyptian's explosive statements, analysts estimated his chances of staying at Anfield at roughly fifty-fifty. The alternative was considered a move to Saudi Arabia, but more as a long-term scenario. After the interview the balance has shifted: now the Asian route looks like the main option.
The probability of a move to a Saudi club is now estimated at roughly two-thirds of all possible outcomes. Several teams in the league are actively testing the waters, with Al Hilal under Simone Inzaghi standing out. A huge salary, superstar status and the role of the project's flagship – Saudi Arabia is ready to offer all of this to Salah as early as the upcoming transfer window.
At the same time, the club atmosphere around him at Liverpool has clearly become tense: the leader of the long-standing attacking system has suddenly turned into a rotation player, and without any clear explanation. Against this background, an offer from Asia no longer looks like a "retirement contract" and instead turns into a realistic, working option here and now.
A Chance to Continue the Story: The 'Stay and Prove It' Scenario
Despite the strong words in the media, the likelihood that Salah will still finish the season at Liverpool remains high. An estimate of around 40% suggests that the club is not yet ready to simply let go of its leading goalscorer of recent years, and the player himself has repeatedly stressed that he dreamed of ending his career at Anfield.
Mohamed's contract runs until the summer of 2027, and the club is still convinced that he can contribute at the top level. However, in the interview Salah did not hide his pain – he believes that after everything he has done for the team, being pushed out of the starting XI like this feels unfair.
His relationship with head coach Arne Slot has clearly cooled: according to the player, it has gone from "very good" to almost non-existent. For the "stay" option to work, Liverpool will have to do more than just keep the forward financially – they will also have to rebuild trust.
Galatasaray and Other European Suitors
If we talk about specific European clubs, Galatasaray is named first in the queue. The chances of seeing Salah in Istanbul are estimated at around 10%. The Turkish giant is actively assembling a dazzling attacking line, and a potential partnership between the Egyptian and stars such as Mauro Icardi, Victor Osimhen or Leroy Sané (depending on how the transfer market develops) looks extremely enticing for the fans.
Slightly further down the list are options involving the continent's top clubs – Bayern, PSG, Barcelona, Real Madrid, Arsenal and Manchester United. The probability of a move to one of these giants ranges between 2% and 7%. Formally, they can always show interest in a player of this calibre, but the combination of factors – age, contract terms and transfer fee – makes this scenario more theoretical than genuinely expected.
MLS and an American Dream That Isn't Tempting Yet
A move to MLS also appears in the bookmakers' odds, but with noticeably smaller chances – around 8%. The league is actively attracting star players, but in Salah's particular case logic points another way: if he does leave Europe, it is far more likely to be for Asia than for America.
For Mohamed, the key remains the combination of high-level sporting ambitions and his status within the project. Right now MLS looks more like a stage that comes after the fight for the biggest trophies is over, while the Egyptian openly says he is in excellent shape and does not understand why the Liverpool chapter should end right now.
Liverpool's Crisis and Salah's Personal Numbers
The overall slump of the team further aggravates the situation. Liverpool have won only two of their last ten Premier League matches, are stuck in mid-table and already trail the leaders by ten points. After matchday five analysts gave the Merseysiders more than a 50% chance of winning the title; now it is barely 3%.
The picture in the Champions League is not encouraging either: the probability of triumph has dropped from about 14% to 8%. In the league Salah himself has scored only four goals in 13 games, adding two assists. In the race for the Golden Boot, the Egyptian's chances have collapsed – from a significant 18% to a symbolic 4%, largely because Erling Haaland is eleven goals ahead.
Against this backdrop it is no surprise that criticism of the forward has intensified. Mohamed himself believes that too much of the responsibility is being shifted onto him, even though the team's overall form is far from optimal.
The Egypt National Team – His Main Source of Motivation
At club level the season is proving difficult so far, but Salah can still count on success with the national team. Egypt are among the favourites for the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations: their chances of lifting the trophy are estimated at around 14% – the same as Algeria – while only Morocco are rated higher, with roughly a quarter of the probability.
This tournament is special for Mohamed: he has already played in four Africa Cup of Nations campaigns and twice came within a step of the trophy, losing in the final. This time his team will face Zimbabwe, South Africa and Angola in the group stage, with the opening match scheduled for 22 December. If Egypt reach the decisive stages, Salah will not return to Liverpool until the second half of January.
On the horizon looms the World Cup as well – 2026. Drawn in a group with Belgium, Iran and New Zealand, Egypt are not considered contenders for the title (their chances are around 0.5%), but they do have a solid opportunity to fight for a place in the knockout stage, where everything can be decided by a single game.
Six Months Before a Career Turning Point
Over the next six months Salah will have to juggle several storylines at once: trying to salvage the season with Liverpool (if he does stay), delivering a standout Africa Cup of Nations campaign and laying the groundwork for a successful performance at the 2026 World Cup.
At the moment it feels as though it is the national team, rather than the club, that is becoming his main point of support – both emotionally and in sporting terms. Egypt could yet bring Salah the trophy that compensates for his club-level disappointments.
Whether the "Egyptian King" heads to Saudi Arabia, dares to accept Galatasaray's challenge or still tries to turn things around at Anfield is a question that remains unanswered. One thing is clear: after his candid interview, the likelihood of a separation from Liverpool has increased markedly, and every new decision by the club and the player will be examined under the microscope of the entire footballing world.
