In the UFC lightweight division, long queues rarely form, but key figures sometimes face off head-to-head faster than a new episode of Embedded can drop. One of the division’s most formidable contenders, Arman Tsarukyan, is convinced that his next walk to the Octagon will almost certainly end in a championship clash with Ilia Topuria.
The Privilege of the No. 1 Ranking
After his split-decision victory over Charles Oliveira in April 2024, the Armenian-Russian fighter soared to the top of the contenders’ list. He now holds the No. 1 spot, which gives him the right to demand a title shot under both sporting logic and the promotion’s internal regulations.
Matchmakers’ Whims and a 70 % Probability
“UFC can shuffle the deck however it wants, but I’ll remain the top contender,” Arman notes. “I’d rate my chances of fighting Topuria at 70 %.” Thus he acknowledges the element of unpredictability: additional bouts, opponent changes, or force-majeure situations are possible, yet the baseline scenario still leads to a championship meeting.
Stepping Back From Makhachev and the Value of Beating Oliveira
Withdrawing from a scheduled January bout against Islam Makhachev due to injury slightly slowed Tsarukyan’s momentum, yet his April triumph over the former lineal champion from Brazil restored his status as the division’s leading belt hunter. That success put him ahead of most rivals in the rankings and reignited fan interest.
What Could Change the Scenario?
Only sudden injuries, contractual nuances, or emergency call-ups could intervene. Otherwise, the math is simple: Topuria holds the belt, Tsarukyan stands first in line, and fans crave fresh rivalry in the division. Consequently, even a 70 % probability seems conservative; everything points to a six-round (or five-round) battle for gold taking place in the very near future.
