Betting on “penalties” is a niche market that is often underestimated. By understanding league regulations and how teams behave at the end of games, you can find value where the line moves by inertia. Below is a compact yet dense methodology: what exactly counts as a penalty shot, which data to collect, how to assess the probability of shootouts across games in a series, and where bettors most commonly go wrong.
Terms Without Confusion
Before you start counting, agree on terminology, because bookmakers can offer different markets under the same label.
- Penalty shot — a one-off attempt awarded by the referee during play for an infraction that denies an obvious scoring chance.
- Shootout (postgame penalty-shot series) — the procedure used, per a tournament’s regulations, to determine a winner after overtime.
The “Total Penalty Shots in a Series” market can mean different things with different operators:
- the total number of postgame shootout attempts (all attempts by both teams) across all games in the series;
- the total number of penalty shots awarded during games (in regulation or overtime before a shootout);
- a combined variant.
Always check the settlement rules and the statistical sources a bookmaker uses.
Where This Market Appears
“Series” usually means a stretch of several games between the same opponents: back-to-back, a mini-tournament, a regular-season series, or the playoffs. Knowing the regulations is crucial:
- In some leagues, there are no shootouts in the playoffs (they play unlimited overtime). In that case, if this market exists, it’s almost certainly about penalty shots during games.
- In the regular season of many European leagues and North American tournaments, shootouts are used. Then it generally refers to the sum of postgame attempts.
How to Read the Line and How Bookmakers Calculate
Lines are often quoted in halves—7.5 / 8.5 / 10.5—to avoid pushes. The basic “geometry” of a single-game shootout is: both teams take three attempts; if still tied, it goes to “sudden death.” Therefore, the expected number of attempts per game typically hovers around 6–9 (varies by league and season). For a series, the expected value is the sum of game-by-game expectations:
E(Total Shootout Attempts in the Series) = Σ [P(shootout in match i) × E(attempts | shootout)] + Σ E(penalty shots awarded during games).
What to Look for in Analysis (Bettor’s Checklist)
- Probability of a tie in regulation. The primary driver of shootouts. It increases with a low tempo (fewer shots on target), strong goaltending, high chance suppression, and “pragmatic” third-period hockey.
- 5-on-5 tempo and style. Teams with low pace and few high-quality chances (xG) reach overtime more often.
- Special teams and discipline. Lots of penalties → more events and imbalance; paradoxically, excessive “grit” can reduce the chance of a tie (more power-play goals).
- Goaltender form and depth. “Save-heavy No. 1 vs. save-heavy No. 1” pairings keep scores down. Back-to-back rotations can reduce total “save strength.”
- Schedule and fatigue. On long trips or after a dense run of games, teams often “close” the game without risk late — which can cut both ways: either they shut it down or collapse in the third. Check each team’s actual back-to-back profile.
- Behavioral patterns in OT. Some teams nurse the puck and shoot little in overtime (a path to a shootout); others hunt quick 2-on-1s.
- Series regulations. Series length, overtime rules, goalie-switch rules in shootouts — all move the expectation.
Data and Metrics That Truly Help
- Share of games reaching OT/shootouts, by team and league-wide.
- Chances and xG by period (especially the third).
- SV% of starting goaltenders and likely backups in the series.
- Penalties per 60 minutes (Penalties/60), power-play/penalty-kill rates.
- Historical “draw” profile in head-to-heads with roster adjustments (avoid phantom correlations on small samples).
Mini-Model on a Napkin
- Estimate Pdraw — the probability of a tie in regulation for each game (via a Poisson/Skellam-like goal model or empirically from pace and SV%).
- Multiply it by the average E(attempts | shootout) for your league/season (use your own estimate, e.g., 7.5).
- If needed, add the penalty-shot component during play: use the team/league empirical rate (a rare event, 0–0.2 per game).
- Sum across the games in the series to get your total expectation. Compare with the line and price: if the difference yields an overlay > 5–7% after accounting for margin, that’s value.
Two Illustrative Scenarios
Scenario 1: Preconditions for the Over Total
Say ZSC Lions vs. SC Bern play a five-game mini-series in the regular season. Both teams are low-tempo with strong No. 1 goalies, and this season ~30% of their games go to OT. You conservatively take Pdraw = 0.27 per game and E(attempts | shootout) = 7.4.
E for the series: 5 × 0.27 × 7.4 ≈ 10.0 attempts. The bookmaker’s line is 9.5 Over at 1.95. With your estimate, expected value is about half a point above the line — with a reasonable margin, that can be a plus-EV play.
Scenario 2: A Tilt Toward the Under
EV Zug vs. HC Lugano are in a tight schedule, but both have played wide-open lately; defenses are sagging, power-play goals are up. In your model, Pdraw drops to 0.17, E(attempts | shootout) = 7.6. A four-game series: 4 × 0.17 × 7.6 ≈ 5.2.
The line 7.5 Under at 1.87 looks closer to fair, while 8.5 Under at 1.95 becomes more attractive.
Common Mistakes and How to Avoid Them
- Mixing markets. The bettor thinks about shootouts, but the bookmaker settles on penalty shots during play — or vice versa. Read the rules!
- Ignoring playoff regulations. If there are no shootouts in the playoffs, “Over” for a series is often inflated.
- Overrating head-to-heads. Small samples are a trap. Adjust for lineups and current goalie form.
- No schedule adjustment. A backup goalie can break an “Under” scenario.
- Chasing the last result. One recent “long” shootout does not make the series an “Over.”
Bankroll Management and Working With the Line
Stake a fixed percentage of your bankroll (flat 1–2%) or use a Kelly fraction for your estimated overlay. Track line movement: the shootout market is thin, and even a small flow of money can move the price. If you trust your Pdraw estimate, it’s often better to enter earlier, before overall totals and moneylines “eat” the price.
When “Over” or “Under” Really Make Sense
- Playing the Over: two “closed” teams with top goaltenders, low pace, coaches who prefer to avoid late risk, and a schedule that doesn’t point to backups.
- Playing the Under: special teams in form, many penalties expected, a class imbalance, and one team often “breaks” the tie in the third period.
In Short: How to Build an Edge
Define exactly what the market covers, compute the probability of a tie for each game in the series, carefully estimate the average number of attempts in shootouts for your league, and add the rare but non-zero penalty-shot component during play. Compare your expectation with the line and price — then act with discipline, staying within your bankroll. This market rewards patience and precision: value appears where others see just “another total.”
