Among the many markets in a bookmaker's line there is a special category of bets where it is important not only how the match ends, but also how the teams start the game. The bet 'Who will win the first quarter and the match' is exactly one of these: it requires a deeper analysis of tempo, starting fives and team character, but at the same time can offer noticeably higher odds than a simple match result. Let’s break down how this market works, what to focus on, and in which situations it can really be profitable for the bettor.
What the 'First Quarter and the Match' Bet Means
In essence, this is a combined bet on two related outcomes:
- Who will be ahead on points after the first quarter.
- Who will win the match overall.
For your bet to win, the team you back must simultaneously:
- win the first quarter; and
- win the match as a whole.
If at least one of these conditions is not met, the bet loses. A team might start very strongly but end up losing the game, or, on the contrary, 'sleep through' the opening and then turn the match around. In both cases, a bet on 'the first quarter and the match' will be settled as a losing one.
Most often this market appears in basketball, where the game is divided into quarters and the opening stretch often sets the tone for the entire match. Similarly, in football you can find a bet in the format 'who will win the first half and the match', which works on the same principle, only the half is used instead of a quarter.
Why Bookmakers Offer High Odds
A bet on the match winner is a single outcome. A bet on the winner of the first quarter is another outcome. By combining them, the bookmaker increases the risk for the bettor: now both events have to occur together for the bet to win. Therefore, odds in the 'first quarter and the match' market are usually noticeably higher than for a simple match result or even a handicap.
The bookmaker takes into account:
- statistics for the first quarters;
- the overall level of the teams;
- possible rotation in the starting fives;
- motivation and the density of the schedule.
The less predictable the start is, the more cautious the line will be and the higher the odds on such markets will rise. For the bettor, this means risk on the one hand, and on the other hand an opportunity to find 'value' if you have a deeper understanding of the teams’ style and habits.
How to Analyze the First Quarter Separately From the Match
One of the key mistakes beginners make is analyzing only the final result and ignoring the specifics of the start. For bets on 'the first quarter and the match', it is important to separate these two layers.
Pay attention to the following points:
- The team’s starting tempo. Some clubs enter the game aggressively, imposing a high tempo from the very first minutes; others only get going closer to the second half. You can see this in the average point differential specifically in the first quarters/halves.
- The starting five and rotation. If the coach often sends out an experimental lineup in the opening minutes or actively 'protects' the leaders at the start, the team may regularly lose the opening stretch but win the end of the game thanks to the depth of the bench.
- Psychology and character. Some teams react poorly to pressure and crowd noise at the beginning of the match, but then settle into the rhythm. Others, on the contrary, build their plan around a powerful start and then control the lead.
- Fatigue and schedule. With a congested fixture list, a favorite may start at a lower tempo to save energy and then increase the pace as the match progresses. In such situations, a bet on the favorite to win the match, but not necessarily the first quarter, may be more reasonable than a combined bet.
Key Factors for Predicting the 'Quarter + Match' Bet
So as not to bet at random, it makes sense to gather as much information as possible:
- The current form of the teams. Look not only at the results, but also at how they are achieved. If the favorite has been struggling to get into games for several matches in a row and keeps losing the opening stretches, this is a warning sign for a 'first quarter and the match' bet.
- Head-to-head history. Some matchups develop in such a way that one side is used to 'choking' the opponent with pressing from the first minutes. If the head-to-head stats show that one team regularly wins the start and holds on to the lead, this is a clear plus in favor of the market you are considering.
- Home court factor. Home teams often start more aggressively: crowd support, a familiar basket or pitch, and no travel fatigue. If the hosts traditionally perform well specifically in the first quarter, a bet on them to win both the start and the match looks more appealing.
- Lineup and injuries. The absence of a leader who sets the tone at the beginning of the game can drastically change the picture. Analyze not only the injury list, but also who replaces the key players in the starting five.
- Odds and margin. Compare the line on the regular match win, the win in the first quarter, and the combined outcome. Sometimes the bookmaker clearly 'over-hedges', inflating the odds on 'the quarter + the match' relative to what logic and statistics would suggest.
Calculation Examples: Basketball and Football
Basketball. Suppose in the NBA, Golden State and Los Angeles Lakers are playing. You study the stats and notice that the Warriors often start their home games strongly and hold the lead to the end. There is a market in the line:
- 'Golden State will win the first quarter and the match'.
You place your bet on exactly this outcome. If, after the first quarter, Golden State is ahead on the scoreboard and remains the winner at the end of the match, the bet wins. If the first quarter ends in a draw or the Lakers are ahead, or if the Lakers win the match, the bet will lose even if part of your prediction turns out to be correct.
Football (half and match). In the Champions League, Manchester City and Barcelona meet. You believe that the English side will start aggressively at home and be able to score already in the first half, then see the game out to a win. There is a bet in the line:
- 'Manchester City will win the first half and the match'.
For your bet to come in, City must be leading after 45 minutes and hold on to their advantage until the final whistle. A half-time draw or a Barcelona comeback in the second half will result in the bet losing.
Who the 'First Quarter and the Match' Market Is For
This type of bet is not designed for random play. It is particularly interesting for those who:
- closely follow specific leagues and teams;
- can analyze not only the final result, but also the structure of the match;
- are ready to work with statistics on the opening stretches, rotation and the specifics of coaching philosophies.
If you are willing to spend time on in-depth analysis, the 'Who will win the first quarter and the match' market can become a good tool for finding 'value' odds. However, you must approach it professionally: clear analysis, careful bankroll management and an understanding that the risk with combined outcomes is always higher. Then a bet on the first quarter and the match will stop being a lottery and turn into a conscious part of your strategic betting game.
