The October marathon of international fixtures for World Cup berths ended noisy and varied. In Europe, the favorites largely held serve, yet there was drama — Portugal missed an early clinch despite a Cristiano Ronaldo brace, Spain kept their flawless surge, and Italy are still chasing the leader of their group. Meanwhile in Asia and Africa, we learned the names of five more qualifiers: Qatar and Saudi Arabia finished the job, and the CAF campaign produced three new group winners. Let’s break it down.
Europe. Group E — Spain on Autopilot, Turkey Dismantle Opponents with Set Pieces
Spain entered the round as overwhelming favorites and promptly confirmed it, hammering Bulgaria 4:0 at home. Luis de la Fuente’s side delivered their customary high-intensity press and flooded the box in waves: by half-time La Roja had 20 attempts, and only one was on target — the one that went in. Mikel Merino broke the deadlock late in the first half, turning in a Robin Le Normand knockdown.
After the break Merino completed his brace — again with a header, this time from an inch-perfect Alejandro Grimaldo cross. That’s his sixth goal in four qualifiers — striker-level output despite not being an out-and-out No. 9. Then came a helping hand: Atanas Chernev turned an Aleix Garcia low ball into his own net. The final word belonged to Mikel Oyarzabal, who coolly converted a penalty awarded for a foul on Merino. Bottom line — another clean sheet and a hulking 15:0 goal difference in the group. Across their last eight World Cup qualifiers Spain have scored 23 and conceded none — a showcase of total control and defensive discipline.
Turkey, meanwhile, staged a home fireworks show by routing Georgia 4:1. Kenan Yildiz made life easier very early — in the 14th minute he cleverly chipped over Giorgi Mamardashvili. Turkey’s set pieces are a story of their own: Merih Demiral scored two headers from Hakan Calhanoglu corners (one before the interval, one just after). Before the break, Yunus Akgun made it 3:0 with a textbook rebound finish. Georgia pulled one back midway through the second half via Giorgi Kochorashvili, but it didn’t change the outcome. The head-to-head trend favors Turkey, and in this cycle Vincenzo Montella’s side have rattled in ten goals over the last two rounds — against Georgia and Bulgaria.
The group math is simple: if points are level, goal difference comes first, then goals scored. Four matches remain: 15 November — Turkey vs Bulgaria and Georgia vs Spain; 18 November — Bulgaria vs Georgia and Spain vs Turkey. Given current momentum, Spain firmly hold the strings, but the head-to-head with Turkey will be tournament-tough.
Group F — Cristiano's (No. 947 and No. 948) Brace Doesn’t Save Portugal; Ireland Take the Required Points
Portugal’s 2:2 against Hungary unfolded almost perfectly: an early cold shower, a strong reply and control — except for the finale. At the start Attila Szalai punished a Dominik Szoboszlai delivery and Diogo Costa’s misjudged claim. Midway through the first half Nelson Semedo drilled across from the right and Cristiano Ronaldo swept home — the 947th goal of his career. Just before the break came No. 948: a Nuno Mendes cross and another trademark run and finish.
After half-time the hosts could have shut it down — Rúben Dias smacked the post, and a minute later Bruno Fernandes hit the same spot. The Hungarians were just as dangerous: Szalai rattled the crossbar. Then on 89 minutes came the key moment: positional lapse — and Szoboszlai tucked in from close range to punish Portugal. Historically, Hungary have yet to beat Portugal in 16 meetings, but an away draw is valuable capital. For Portugal, the sting is elsewhere: at 2:1 Roberto Martínez’s side would have clinched early, but the party is postponed. The home streak remains imposing (14 wins in their last 16), yet these endings remind that in knockout-style football, concentration to the final whistle is law.
Ireland took a workmanlike 1:0 at home to Armenia. The match flipped early in the second half when the two No. 11s clashed — Tigran Barseghyan headbutted Finn Azaz and saw a straight red. With a man advantage, the Greens pushed on — Evan Ferguson scored against Armenia again, just as in September. It’s only their second clean sheet since last November — a notable detail for a side that often struggles to close games.
The run-in promises intrigue: 13 November — Armenia vs Hungary and Ireland vs Portugal; 16 November — Hungary vs Ireland and Portugal vs Armenia. With the pack bunched behind the leaders, every point is gold dust.
Group I — Retegui Carries the Azzurri, Israel Neutralized; A Dramatic Draw in Tallinn
Italy handled Israel 3:0 at home without nerves. It was an impressively mature performance: minimal fuss, maximum control, and measured threat at the right moments. Mateo Retegui won a penalty again — this time he took it himself and scored. On 75 minutes the Argentina-born forward calmed the contest with a thunderous strike from the edge into the top corner, and in stoppage time Gianluca Mancini headed in to cap it. The Azzurri have never lost to Israel and have won eight of their nine meetings — a stat that breeds confidence before the decisive stretch.
In the parallel game Estonia and Moldova drew 1:1. The hosts led through a classy Mattias Käit curler into the top corner from the D, but after the break Ștefan Bodișteanu equalized via a deflection that wrong-footed the keeper. There were 33 shots combined — a number that suggests a willingness to take risks more than structured attacking. Historically, Estonia have lost to Moldova only once in seven meetings — trend intact.
The table reality: Norway lead with a hefty goal-difference cushion; Italy trail but keep the tempo. Over the long haul, that cushion may prove decisive, so the Azzurri’s plan is clear — win and minimize concessions. November brings two stern tests: on the 13th Norway host Estonia and Moldova face Italy; on the 16th Italy meet Norway and Israel play Moldova. The European champions remain strong playoff candidates — nerves included.
Group K — England Flawless and Already at the World Cup, Serbia Win After a Goal from the Center Circle
England smashed Latvia 5:0 away and officially booked their World Cup berth. Gareth Southgate’s team delivered textbook controlled pressing and a variety of attacking mechanisms. Anthony Gordon opened in the 26th minute with a crisp strike into the right corner from inside the box. Before half-time Harry Kane rifled into the left corner from outside the area and soon completed his brace from the spot. After the interval came an own goal by Maksims Tonisevs for the fourth, and Eberechi Eze added the fifth. In this qualifying run England have not allowed a goal (goal difference 18:0), and since last November they have kept nine clean sheets in ten, the lone exception a 1:3 friendly loss to Senegal. This will be England’s 11th World Cup since 1982 — they only missed the 1994 edition in the United States.
Serbia beat Andorra 3:1 away, but it was far from the manual. On 17 minutes Guillaume Lopez intercepted in midfield and launched a lob from the center circle — the ball arced in and Bournemouth keeper Đorđe Petrović couldn’t claw it out. The hosts’ joy didn’t last: a few minutes later Christian Garcia thumped into his own net after a mix-up with his goalkeeper. After the break Serbia leaned on forceful wing play: Dušan Vlahović headed in from a Filip Kostić cross, and then Aleksandar Mitrović sealed it from the spot. Critical points in the table, though the fragile moments in building under pressure will be on the staff’s whiteboard.
November closes the group: on the 13th — Andorra vs Albania and England vs Serbia; on the 16th — Serbia vs Latvia and Albania vs England. For Serbia, the home game against Latvia is pivotal — the margin for error is minimal.
Asia — Qatar Back on the Global Stage, Saudi Arabia Do the Routine; UAE and Iraq into the Playoffs
In the fourth Asian qualifying round, two mini-groups of three send the winners straight to the World Cup, while runners-up go to the playoffs. Qatar sealed a second straight World Cup by beating UAE 2:1. After a goalless first half, Akram Afif took over with two assists — both headed in by Boualem Khoukhi and Pedro Miguel. Late on, Sultan Adil pulled one back, but it changed nothing. A quirky moment: Qatar coach Julen Lopetegui took a ball flush to the face early on, yet finished as energetically as he started — and with a winning smile.
Saudi Arabia solved it pragmatically — 0:0 with Iraq, enough to clinch a third consecutive World Cup. The Saudis played the score, allowed minimal transition space, and smartly smothered tempo via possession and tactical fouls in midfield.
Next — the playoffs: in November UAE and Iraq face off, with the winner heading to the intercontinental playoffs. There, one or two decisive ties await — the format lets the strongest hop aboard the World Cup in the last carriage.
Africa — The 'Elephants' Return, 'Bafana Bafana' Back on the Big Stage, Senegal Make It Three in a Row
African qualifying is straightforward: nine groups of six, winners go directly to the World Cup. Six had already qualified, and three more joined the list.
Côte d'Ivoire, starting the round as leaders, wrapped it up comfortably — 3:0 over Kenya. In parallel, Gabon beat Burundi 2:0, but it didn’t matter. The Elephants will grace the World Cup for the first time since 2014. The team blends a powerful spine with pace on the flanks and looks built for tournament football — low-risk play and cold-blooded finishing.
South Africa also return to the World Cup — for the first time since hosting in 2010. Before the final matchday the picture was tense: Benin led with 17 points, South Africa were on 15, Nigeria on 14. Bafana Bafana cruised past Rwanda 3:0, while Nigeria thumped Benin 4:0 — a Victor Osimhen hat-trick. Result: South Africa win the group, and Nigeria go to the playoffs after flirting with danger.
Senegal, led by Sadio Mané, booked a third World Cup in a row. On paper the task looked simple, but it demanded focus: Senegal topped the table by two over DR Congo, hosting Mauritania while the rival hosted Sudan. The Teranga Lions didn’t dally: 4:0, with half the goals from Mané. DR Congo’s 1:0 win didn’t change a thing — Senegal were out of reach.
Next — the African playoffs: in November Gabon, DR Congo, Cameroon and Nigeria will vie for an intercontinental playoff berth (format — semi-finals then a final; exact pairings to follow the October FIFA Ranking update). The winner joins one Asian team, two from CONCACAF, plus Bolivia and New Caledonia in the hunt for the last two World Cup places. The intercontinental deciders are slated for March 2026 — stakes at the ceiling.
What’s Next: November's Pressure Points and Storylines
European November promises several key showdowns. In Group E, Spain vs Turkey is the headline duel: Spain are immaculate in defense and goal difference, but Turkey’s concrete set pieces often crack matches even against compact blocks. In Group F, Portugal need more than points — they must rediscover the killer instinct in endings. Hungary have proven maximally awkward, and the head-to-head with Ireland could flip the second-place math.
Group I is a race decided in milliseconds: Italy must attack and insure the back line at once — against Norway it’s all in the details, and any “empty” drop of points invites the playoffs. Finally, Group K is effectively closed for England — the question is how Serbia balance results with fixing their under-pressure build-up.
In Asia, everything is trending toward a finale capped by intercontinental trials — the calendar is traditionally brutal for runners-up. In Africa, expect a “tournament of character” — where resilience often trumps pedigree.
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October set bold markers and left room for November’s stories. England are already fine-tuning for USA-2026, Spain look championship-grade from round to round, and Portugal and Italy received a sharp reminder: even star-studded squads need perfection in micro-moments. Elsewhere, Qatar and Saudi Arabia underlined the stability of their programs, and Africa delivered three vivid returns. Next comes the fun part: November will set the accents, and March 2026 will complete the picture of the world’s football festival.
