Modern bookmakers offer dozens of markets for the very same match, and within this variety it is easy to overlook niche markets that provide a precise yet very promising edge. One of these options is the bet on the race to 5, 10, 15 points. It allows you not only to predict the final score or the outright winner, but also to profit from short stretches of the game and the very first scoring runs. If you read statistics and context correctly, this market can become an important part of an experienced bettor's strategy.
The Essence of the Race to Points Bet
A bet on the race to a specified number of points is a prediction on which team will be the first to reach a given total of points scored. The bookmaker sets a target threshold: for example, a race to 5, 10, 15, 20 points and so on. The bettor's task is to decide who will get there faster: the favorite, the underdog, or sometimes there is also an option for "neither team" (if the competition rules allow it).
This type of market is most commonly found in team sports where points or scores are counted:
- basketball (quarters, halves, sometimes the whole game);
- volleyball (sets);
- table tennis;
- badminton;
- and sometimes other sports where the score grows sequentially and fairly dynamically.
The key point is that the bettor does not care about the final result by sets or the full-time score. Only who reaches the specified mark first matters. A team may eventually lose the match, but your bet will still win if it gets to the required number of points first.
Where and How the Race to Points Bet Is Offered
Most major bookmakers offer the race to points market both pre-match and in live betting. Sometimes it appears as:
- a race to points within a single quarter (basketball);
- a race to points within a set (volleyball, table tennis);
- a race to points for the entire match (less common, but it does occur).
The live format is especially interesting: game tempo, made and missed shots, quick fouls, time-outs — all of this can be observed in real time, allowing you to adjust your decisions. Pre-match you rely on statistics and analysis, while in live betting you add the "eye test" from the actual broadcast on top.
What Matters When Analyzing the Race to Points Bet
A bet on the race to 5, 10 or 15 points may look simple at first glance, but there is a serious analytical layer behind it. The main factors are:
- Current form and attacking potential. Look not only at recent results, but also at how exactly teams score their points. For example, if the Boston Celtics in the NBA consistently start quarters with powerful runs like 10–2 or 12–4, this is a signal that in the "race to 10 points" market they will more often be the first to reach the target. Similarly, if a team regularly struggles in the opening phase of games, it may still be dangerous on full-time totals, but not so reliable in races to the first points.
- Pace and style of play. Teams that rely on fast breaks and early shots logically move the score faster. In basketball, pace is one of the key metrics: when comparing, say, the Los Angeles Lakers and the Denver Nuggets, it is important to consider who prefers a quick transition from defense to offense and who leans towards a slow, half-court game. In volleyball, offensive tempo is also visible: some national teams serve aggressively and try to finish rallies in two or three exchanges, while others tend to drag rallies out and play more cautiously.
- Head-to-head history. Some matchups consistently follow a pattern where one team enters the game better than the other. For example, if in recent head-to-head games the Italy volleyball team often starts sets with a lead against France, this is a direct argument in favor of a race to 10 or a race to 15 points in Italy's favor. Bare numbers for the score at the start of sets can sometimes be even more meaningful than final wins and losses.
- Lineups and roles of key players. Success in a race to points depends heavily on who is on the court from the very first minutes. In basketball, a starting five with two or three strong shooters and a playmaker who constantly pushes the pace is almost always more dangerous in terms of quick scoring. If, for instance, the Milwaukee Bucks are missing one of their leaders while the opponent fields an optimal lineup, the advantage in the race to 10–15 points can swing to the other side, even if the line still lists Milwaukee as the favorite to win the game overall.
- Starting psychology and motivation. Some teams intentionally "hit hard" from the tip-off, trying to establish dominance right away. Others, on the contrary, take their time to find rhythm, experiment a lot and play cautiously on defense. Add the tournament context here: a game for a playoff spot, a best-of-seven series, a rematch after a loss, and so on. All of this affects the opening stretch and, accordingly, the race to the desired number of points.
- Tournament format and regulations. The number of time-outs, the length of quarters or sets, and the way points are counted all matter as well. In tournaments with a tight schedule, coaches may protect their star players at the beginning of the game, which makes a bet on the race to points more risky for the favorite.
In Practice: What It Looks Like in Real Games
Example 1. Basketball, race to 20 points.
Imagine an NBA game between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Boston Celtics. You analyze their recent performances and see that the Celtics often rack up points quickly thanks to three-point shooting and aggressive transition offense, whereas the Lakers sometimes ease their way into the game and rely more on half-court sets.
The bookmaker offers a market on "which team will be the first to score 20 points in the game" or "race to 20 points in the first quarter." You choose the Boston Celtics. If the Celtics are the first to reach 20 points, your bet wins regardless of how the quarter or the game itself ends. If the Lakers hit the 20-point mark first, your bet loses.
Example 2. Volleyball, race to 15 points.
Now imagine you are looking at a European Championship volleyball match between the national teams of Italy and France. Statistics from past meetings show that Italy tends to start sets with a strong run, while France takes longer to get into the game and usually finds its rhythm closer to the middle of the set.
The bookmaker offers a "race to 15 points" market for the first set. You back Italy to be the first team to reach 15 points. If Italy gets to 15 points first, the bet wins even if France later catches up and takes the set 26–24. If France overtakes Italy in the race to 15 points, the bet is settled as a loss.
How to Integrate the Race to Points Bet Into Your Strategy
Bets on the race to 5, 10 or 15 points are best viewed not as a separate "one-off" market, but as a tool that complements your overall strategy. In some games, it makes sense to combine the race to points with traditional markets (H/A, handicaps, totals), while in others you can use it as a targeted solution when you see an obvious edge on the opening stretch.
The main thing is not to rely solely on gut feeling. Work with statistics, substitution timing, starting lineups and team styles; analyze how they handle the first few minutes. With a systematic approach and discipline, the race to points transforms from an "exotic" market into a clear and manageable instrument that helps you capitalize on every successful scoring run.
