Sometimes a single rally in a tennis match decides everything: the fate of the tournament, the rankings, and of course your bet. When one of the players is already standing on the brink of defeat, the opponent is serving for the match, and the scoreboard shows "match point" — this is exactly the moment when an unusual, risky, but very exciting market comes into play: a bet that the player will save a match point and still go on to win the match. Let’s break down how this outcome works, what to look at before placing the bet, and who should even consider dealing with such extreme scenarios.
Table of Contents
- What This Bet Is: Saved Match Point Plus Win
- How Bookmakers Calculate the Chances of Such a Comeback
- Psychology and Style: Which Player Can Turn Around a Hopeless Match
- What to Look At Before Betting: Statistics and Context
- Practical Examples: How This Scenario Can Look in a Real Match
- Who This Saved Match Point Bet Suits and How to Use It
What This Bet Is: Saved Match Point Plus Win
The market "player will save a match point and win the match" refers to a very specific scenario:
- the tennis player you choose must have at least one match point against them;
- they must save that match point (or several match points);
- after that, they must go on to win the entire match.
If the opponent never gets a chance to close out the match (that is, there is not a single match point against your player), the bet loses, even if your player wins the match.
If a match point does occur but your player fails to save it and loses the match, the bet also loses.
Essentially, you are not just betting on the victory of an underdog or a favorite; you are betting on a comeback from the very edge. That is why the odds on this outcome are usually very high: the bookmaker initially assumes a very low probability that the player will drag the match back from "one foot over the line".
How Bookmakers Calculate the Chances of Such a Comeback
Odds for the "will save a match point and win" market often appear in the following ways:
- as a separate pre-match market in the line for major tournaments (Grand Slam, Masters, WTA 1000),
- as a special offer for top matches,
- or in the format of long-term or combined special bets.
The odds are influenced by:
- the overall favorite of the match in terms of money and rankings;
- the match format (best of three or best of five sets);
- the players’ profiles: "fighters" versus those who tend to crumble in closing stages;
- the surface and statistics at the specific tournament.
In essence, the bookmaker is answering a single question:
"How likely is it that the chosen player will be on the verge of defeat, yet survive and flip the script?"
This outcome is initially treated as very unlikely, which is why you see odds in the 8.00–20.00 range and even higher.
Psychology and Style: Which Player Can Turn Around a Hopeless Match
Not every tennis player is suitable for such bets. There are several profiles that produce comebacks more often:
- Mentally Resilient Players. Players like Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, or Novak Djokovic are known for refusing to give up even when facing three match points. They keep playing their best patterns rather than merely "blocking the ball back".
- Big Servers. A player who can crank up a first serve above 200 km/h for an ace or force an error from the returner (for example, Taylor Fritz or Matteo Berrettini) has a better chance of saving a match point on their own serve.
- Physically Enduring Players. In five-set marathons at the majors, what matters is who maintains the pace better by the end of the fourth or fifth set. A player who is ready to run for another two hours feels more confident psychologically, even with a match point against them.
- Lovers of Dramatic Finishes. Some players (both on the ATP and WTA tours) statistically win many matches in which they were already down a set and a break. This is a key indicator of their ability to stage comebacks.
If a player is stable only when the score is comfortable but falls apart under pressure, a bet on a saved match point in their case turns into pure lottery.
What to Look At Before Betting: Statistics and Context
For a bet on a saved match point not to be just an emotional "I want a miracle", it should be based on analysis. The main parameters are:
- Head-to-Head (H2H). Look at how previous matches between the opponents have played out. If, for example, Sinner regularly pushes Alcaraz into tie-breaks and deciding sets, there is a good chance the match will once again go into a nerve-wracking finish.
- Percentage of Service and Return Games Won. A player who holds serve confidently and can break has a better chance to save a match point — especially if that match point comes on their own serve.
- Break-Point and Match-Point Statistics. Some tennis players frequently save break points, while others, on the contrary, "collapse" at an opponent’s first opportunity. It is similar with match points: many top players have a history of being "unbreakable" in crucial rallies.
- Surface and Tournament. On fast hard courts in the United States (such as at the US Open), a single well-struck first serve can decide the fate of a match point. On clay, by contrast, rallies are much longer — here, endurance and patience matter more.
- Form and Workload. If a player spent yesterday grinding through a five-set thriller and today steps on court against a fresh opponent, relying on a comeback after a match point against them is much more risky.
The fewer boxes a player ticks in favor of a "fighter’s profile", the more adventurous and speculative this bet becomes.
Practical Examples: How This Scenario Can Look in a Real Match
Example 1. ATP, Hard Court, Hypothetical Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner Match
Suppose Alcaraz is considered the favorite before the match, but you know that Sinner often grows into tournaments and can pull through tough finishes. You choose the market "Sinner will save a match point and win the match" at very high odds.
During the match, Sinner is down two sets to one and trails 4–5 in the fourth set with Alcaraz serving. The scoreboard shows a match point. Sinner saves it on return, then breaks, wins the set in a tie-break, and in the fifth set grinds his opponent down. It’s a rare scenario, but it is exactly this kind of development that makes your bet a winner: there was a match point against Sinner, he saved it, and ultimately took the match.
Example 2. WTA, Hard Court, Coco Gauff vs. Iga Swiatek at the US Open
Swiatek dominates for two sets, but Gauff is known for fighting for every point with the backing of the American crowd. You believe that the pressure of New York might affect the world No. 1, and you take the market "Gauff will save a match point and win the match".
In the third set at 4–5, Gauff serves to stay in the match and faces double match point against her. She saves both points, pushes the game to advantage, levels the score, sends the set into a tie-break, and there completely turns the match around. The outcome: Gauff wins, your bet lands, even though at one point she was literally a single point away from defeat.
Stories like this do not occur often in real tennis, but they are exactly what makes this market so attractive to fans of "movie-like" comebacks.
Who This Saved Match Point Bet Suits and How to Use It
It is important to understand that the "player will save a match point and win the match" market is a high-risk tool. A few recommendations:
- Do Not Make It the Core of Your Strategy. It should be an addition to your main game on outcomes, handicaps, and totals rather than a replacement for the fundamental markets.
- Limit Your Stake Size. It is reasonable to allocate only a small percentage of your bankroll to such markets, treating them as high-risk but potentially very profitable "special projects".
- Choose Matches with a Clear Dynamic. It is better to target matches where you have a good understanding of the players’ styles and have seen how they behave in closing stages, rather than betting on random encounters.
- Use Live Analysis If the Bookmaker Offers the Market In-Play. Sometimes a player’s body language (gestures, the pace between points, the quality of the second serve) shows whether they are psychologically ready to "fight to the death".
Bets on a saved match point and subsequent victory are always a game on the edge, a mix of analytics, knowledge of the players, and a certain love of drama. For a disciplined bettor who is ready to risk a small part of their bankroll for the sake of big odds and intense emotions, this market can become an interesting yet demanding tool in their tennis betting arsenal.
