If “who will win” no longer satisfies you, try viewing a match as a chain of forks in the road. A team can advance in regular time, grind the opponent down in extra time, or hold out for a penalty shootout (in hockey — a shootout) and settle it there. The “method of qualification” market is exactly about this: we forecast not just the fact of advancing but the specific way it will be achieved. This lens opens extra sources of value — especially where bookmakers underestimate game scenarios.
What Exactly We Bet On: Not “Who” but “How”
The “method of qualification” market (also found as “way of qualification” or “method of advancing”) is a bet on how a team will get through the round:
- In regular time (football — 90 minutes plus added time; hockey — 60 minutes).
- In extra time/OT.
- On penalties/shootout.
Do not confuse this with the “to qualify” market. In “to qualify,” any method counts; in the “method of qualification,” the method itself is the subject of the bet.
Where to Find It and How to Read the Wording
In operators’ lines you’ll see various labels: “Win in regular time to qualify”, “To qualify in ET”, “To qualify on penalties”. In hockey — “in OT” and “in shootout”. Make sure the competition rules actually provide for extra time and a penalty/shootout series (cup-stage formats differ across tournaments) and that the market is settled exactly as written: “regular time only” — regular time only, “ET/OT included” — extra time included, “penalties included” — shootout included.
What Drives the Scenario Outcome
The forecasting approach here is different: we assess probabilities of scenario branches, not a single outcome.
- Playing style and tempo. Teams that consistently protect the center and sit in a low block more often drag matches to tight finishes and extra time. High pressing and throwing bodies forward at 0–0, by contrast, increase the chance of settling everything in regulation.
- Squad quality and fatigue. A deep bench and freshness by minutes 80–120 raise the chance of succeeding in ET. Watch schedule congestion and travel.
- Psychology and series experience. National teams and clubs accustomed to “nerve games” often feel more confident in penalty/shootout series.
- Goalkeeper factor. In football — penalty specialists; in hockey — goalies who consistently steal shootouts.
- In-game coaching tactics. Early/late substitutions, responses to 0–0, a habit of “closing” level matches — all of this shifts ET probabilities.
- Home field and regulations. Where the game is played (first/second leg, neutral venue), whether the away-goals rule applies (in most tournaments it no longer does), and how the stage is structured.
- Officiating and weather. A referee tolerant of physical play or a heavy pitch/ice often catalyzes low scoring and, as a result, extra time.
Converting Odds to Probabilities and Finding Value
The logic is the same as in classic markets: the price is the implied probability. For each scenario (regulation / ET / penalties) the bookmaker sets its own price. The sum of probabilities including the margin will be > 100%; your job is to find which scenario is underpriced.
Helpful tips:
- compare the “method of qualification” market with totals and 1X2 — sometimes line discrepancies reveal “tasty” prices;
- think in “branches”: if the match is highly likely to be cagey and low-scoring, part of the probability “flows” from “in regulation” to “in ET/penalties.”
Scenario Modeling Without Heavy Math
You don’t need complex models to think in scenarios:
- Estimate how likely a cagey game is (tempo, motivation, fatigue, weather conditions).
- Weigh which team is better prepared for the long haul (bench depth, coaching adjustments, fitness).
- Combine that with the goalkeeper factor and nerves — who stays cooler if it goes to penalties/shootout?
- Check whether your hypothesis conflicts with totals and “Both Teams to Score.” If the total is shaded to the under and the favorite’s “win in regulation” is priced too short, the value may sit on “ET” or “penalties.”
The Costliest Mistakes
- Mixing up markets. “To qualify” ≠ “method of qualification.” In the former, the “how” doesn’t matter.
- Ignoring competition rules. Some ties go straight to penalties after 90 minutes (no ET); elsewhere ET is mandatory.
- Relying on a single factor. For example, “they have the best penalty taker” — without considering whether it even reaches a shootout.
- Blind faith in favorite status. Strong teams often “trim risk” in the playoffs and take matches to extra time.
- No in-play plan. If your scenario is materializing (low tempo, few chances), you can add “ET/penalties” in-play at improved prices.
In Practice: How It Looks in the Lines
Example 1. Football, cup stage.
Suppose Benfica play Rangers. You expect a low-scoring, stubborn match: both have compact defensive structures, and the coaches don’t like to “open up” at 0–0. In the “method of qualification” market, Benfica in regulation is 2.20, Benfica in ET is higher, and Benfica on penalties higher still. If your estimates say the likelihood of reaching a shootout is materially underpriced, “Benfica on penalties” may be a value play — provided the home keeper excels from the spot.
Example 2. Hockey, NHL playoffs.
The Boston Bruins frequently pin opponents to the boards and make the third period sticky. Versus a peer, “Boston to win in regulation” may be less attractive than “to win in OT.” If shift-tracking and fatigue data for the opponent’s first line point to a drop-off after minute 55, “Bruins in OT” makes sense.
Example 3. Basketball, EuroLeague.
Bayern Munich vs ASVEL — slow tempo and high coaching control. If both push into half-court sets and prefer long possessions late, the favorite’s “win in overtime” market can sometimes be priced above fair. Here the linkage applies: a low total + a tight finish = an elevated probability of OT.
How to Bet Systematically: A Short Checklist
- Check the regulations for the specific stage of the competition.
- Cross-check markets: method of qualification ↔ totals ↔ 1X2 ↔ to qualify. Look for inconsistencies.
- Assess squad depth and coaching patterns in even matches.
- Account for goalkeepers (football/hockey) and closers (basketball).
- Plan in-play add-ons if the scenario unfolds in your favor.
- Keep a decision log: what you expected from the scenario and what happened — this quickly sharpens your branch-probability estimates.
Piecing Together the Probability Puzzle
The “method of qualification” market rewards those who think dynamically rather than statically (“the favorite will win”). The better you read the likely forks — regulation, extra time, or a penalty/shootout series — the easier it is to spot overpriced odds. Start small, test hypotheses across several tournaments, record results, and scale your bankroll only after sustained positive momentum. In this market, the winner isn’t the one who guesses the badge on the scoreboard, but the one who reads the scenario a step before the bookmaker.
