Power Balance: Who Will Take a Step Toward the Trophy?
The 2025 FIFA Club World Cup is drawing close to its denouement: four contenders remain, and three of them are fixtures near the top of the European rankings. Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid and Chelsea have long since learned to live under the floodlights, while Rio de Janeiro’s Fluminense have arrived here in defiance of every algorithm. Bookmakers assigned the Brazilians exactly a 0 % chance of lifting the trophy and less than 2 % of merely reaching the semifinals, yet Fernando Diniz’s side have once again proved that numbers do not always capture the poetry of football.
Fluminense – Chelsea: Latin American Tempo Versus English Pragmatism
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Versatile centre-back Thiago Silva, idolised by Fluminense supporters long before his European adventure, now steps out against the club where he spent four bright seasons and hoisted the 2021 UEFA Champions League trophy. The past is the past, yet Anglo-Brazilian statistics at the CWC are almost symbolic: Chelsea have already beaten Palmeiras twice but stumbled against both Corinthians and Flamengo.
The Rio side have faced an English giant on the global stage only once: last year Fluminense were steam-rolled by Manchester City — 0-4, a two-goal-one-assist masterclass from Julián Álvarez plus an own goal by defender Nino, who now plays for Zenit. Analysts rated Fluminense’s chance of reaching this round at below 10 %, but the team finished runners-up to Borussia Dortmund in the group and knocked out Inter in the play-offs to claim a semifinal ticket.
Chelsea, by contrast, began the tournament in “dark-horse” mode: bookmakers listed the Blues fifth overall and gave them only a 26 % probability of making the semifinals. The Londoners finished second in their group, letting Flamengo take top spot, yet avenged themselves on another Paulista powerhouse, Palmeiras, and earned a place among the final four.
PSG – Real: A New Chapter of a Mega Rivalry
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The 12 previous meetings show Real five wins to Paris’s four — the balance hangs by a thread. The rivalry’s roots stretch back to the vibrant 1990s, when Luis Fernández’s PSG knocked Real out of the UEFA Cup. The Spaniards repaid that debt in full: Karim Benzema’s hat-trick in March 2022 powered Madrid’s comeback and entered Champions League folklore.
Today’s billing comes with an extra layer of tension: Kylian Mbappé’s impending departure turns his reunion with former team-mates into an emotional fuse. Both sides entered the tournament trailing a bright favourite’s aura: PSG were given a 42 % shot at the title, Real Madrid 51 %. The French club dispatched Bayern and crushed Inter Miami 4-0 by half-time, while Madrid methodically beat Juventus and that same Borussia Dortmund.
Betting Odds: Why Three Favorites Held Serve While “Flu” Upset the Forecasts
A glance back at the odds reveals how sharply PSG’s title chances spiked after their spring Champions League triumph. Opta installed the French side as outright favourites at 18.5 %, pushing Manchester City and Bayern aside, while Real Madrid slid to fifth at 9.8 %. Chelsea stood at 8.4 % — respectable, though hardly sensational. Fluminense, meanwhile, languished among the 23 entrants granted literally zero chance of success.
Now the European heavyweights have duly reached the business end, whereas Fluminense have dismantled the statistical models in real time. Should the Rio club continue torching analysts’ spreadsheets, this campaign will rank among the most dazzling surprises in tournament history.
Goalscorers’ Race: Can Anyone Catch Di María?
Before the quarter-finals Ángel Di María topped the scoring list with four penalties converted. The nearest pursuers, Harry Kane and Michael Olise, exited alongside Bayern. On the horizon looms a duel between Gonzalo García of Real and Pedro Neto of Chelsea: they have three and two goals respectively, and pre-semifinal odds of 9.00.
For Madrid, García (4) and Valverde (2) lead the charts, while Paris boast two goals each from Achraf Hakimi and João Neves. Chelsea’s Pedro Neto has struck three times, and Fluminense’s Hercules Pereira twice. Di María and Al-Hilal forward Marcos Leonardo share the summit, but both now watch from the sofa — leaving the door wide open for a new leader.
Who Will Be Tournament MVP: Vitinha, Kvaratskhelia or Bellingham?
The CWC’s best-player award traditionally goes not merely to the statistical standout but to the footballer who most visibly shapes the game. Ahead of the quarters, multi-faceted midfielder Vitinha led the market at 4.50. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Jude Bellingham followed at 7.00 and 10.00. Olise and Kane departed with Bayern, so all intrigue concentrates on that trio. Their head-to-head clashes in the semifinals may decide whose name is engraved on the individual trophy.
Calendar of Decisive Matches: Save the Dates
- 8 July, 22:00 MSK — Fluminense vs Chelsea
- 9 July, 22:00 MSK — PSG vs Real Madrid
- 13 July, 22:00 MSK — CWC 2025 Final
Only three fixtures remain — will a Champions League partner club carry the trophy back to Europe, or will Fluminense rewrite history and showcase Brazilian expertise to the Old Continent? One thing is clear: this year’s CWC has already produced surprises, and its climax promises to be unforgettable.
