Sometimes the simplest idea on the board turns out to be one of the most stubborn: guessing whether the sum of points/goals/games in sets will be divisible by two without a remainder. The 'Total Even — Yes' market is exactly about that. It looks like a coin flip with roughly 50/50 chances, but behind that façade lie the nuances of the sport, tournament regulations, and your sportsbook’s settlement rules. Let’s unpack how this wager works, see where “even” plays to your advantage and where to avoid it, and put popular strategies and typical mistakes in order.
'Total Even — Yes': Plain-English Definition and Payout Formula
The 'Total Even — Yes' bet wins if the combined number of scoring actions by both sides (goals, points, games, sets — depending on the discipline) is even. It loses if the sum is odd.
Key points:
- 0–0 is even. Zero divides by two without a remainder.
- Football examples: 4–0, 3–1, 2–2 are even; 1–0, 2–1, 3–2 are odd.
- Basketball example: 85–75 ⇒ total 160 — even.
- Payout is standard: stake × odds = return; profit equals return minus stake. At 1.90 with a stake of 1000 units, return is 1900 and net profit is 900.
Why are prices often around 1.90/1.90? Because true probability is close to 50/50, and the difference is taken by the sportsbook margin.
Where the Points Count: Regulations and Timing Rules
Before you bet, always check the market rules in your sportsbook:
- Football — generally full time (90 minutes plus stoppage time) is counted; penalty shoot-outs are excluded.
- Hockey — usually regulation time only; there are separate markets “with overtime/shootouts included.”
- Basketball — typically the entire game including overtime is settled.
- Tennis — the odd/even market may refer to games in a set, games in the match, or a specific segment; don’t mix them up.
Misreading how time and segments are settled is the most common reason for “unexpected” losses on this seemingly simple market.
Football: Low Scoring Helps the Even Side
Football is one of the most “transparent” disciplines for odd/even: there are few goals and a narrow spread of final scores. Both are helpful:
- Matches between equals more often produce draws and narrow wins. Draws frequently have an even sum (0–0, 1–1, 2–2).
- Matches with a clear favourite seldom turn into basketball scores, yet parity still depends on the game script: an early underdog goal can flip the distribution.
A ballpark line for evenly matched teams is 1.90/1.90 on even/odd. Historic 2–2 derbies are illustrations, not guarantees: what matters more is form, styles, draw frequency, and how teams close games (whether they try to lock the score).
Basketball: Lots of Points — Less Control
In the NBA and EuroLeague the total often swings across a wide range (roughly 160–240+). With so many field goals and free throws, odd/even becomes almost a pure coin flip:
- High variance: a single make in the last seconds can flip parity.
- Overtime adds points and can reverse an outcome that “looked nailed on.”
- Quarter-by-quarter odd/even is even more volatile: short segments, sudden runs, fouls and technicals can break any model.
Because of that randomness, sportsbooks are happy to keep symmetrical prices here and live off the margin. Without a long-horizon model that accounts for pace, three-point volume, and rotations, attempts to “find patterns” are a lottery.
Hockey: Endgames and Empty-Net Goals as Evenness Factors
Hockey is more scoring-heavy than football, but endgames matter a lot. A team trailing by one goal often pulls the goalie for a sixth skater. That:
- frequently leads to an empty-net goal (adding +1 to the sum),
- or to an equaliser by the underdog and overtime (another chance for parity to change).
Because of these scenarios, some bettors prefer “even” in roughly balanced matchups where a regulation draw isn’t rare. Still, specifics decide: defensive discipline, power-play efficiency, and how coaches manage the final minutes.
Pros and Cons of the Odd/Even Market
What stands out:
- Simple logic: you don’t need the winner or exact total, only whether the sum is even or odd.
- Broad coverage: football, hockey, basketball, tennis, volleyball, etc.
- Symmetrical lines: often a “near 50/50” with transparent pricing.
- Independent of the favourite: the score script matters more than the winner.
What holds it back:
- Margin erodes profitability over time unless you have an edge.
- High volatility in fast sports (basketball, volleyball).
- Regulatory traps (whether overtime/shootouts or penalty shoot-outs are included).
- Hard to scale in accumulators: one random swing can sink the whole slip.
The 'Chase'/Martingale: A Costly Mathematical Trap
The “chase” (increasing stake after a loss to cover previous losses at the first win) is often mentioned for odd/even. It looks logical on paper, but is risky in practice:
- Geometric stake growth: even a short losing streak melts the bank.
- Sportsbook limits and maximum-stake caps can break your chain at the worst moment.
- Psychological pressure: decisions turn impulsive rather than analytical.
If you use progressions at all, set a hard stop-loss, a cap on steps, and a fixed risk per series. Prefer replacing the chase with flat staking or a conservative version of the Kelly criterion when you have a measurable edge.
Practical Tips for Real Use
- Clarify settlement rules: regulation only or with overtime? This is crucial in hockey and basketball.
- Assess styles: in football, teams that draw often and “close” endgames slightly lift the chance of even.
- Avoid pattern painting: five evens in a row doesn’t mean “odd is due.” Probabilities don’t “remember” past games.
- Don’t combine volatile markets into accumulators: one event can zero out the entire slip.
- Bankroll management: a fixed percentage or flat staking reduces overheating.
- Work the line: 1.92–1.95 (sometimes higher) is better than 1.87–1.88 — on distance every tick of margin matters.
- Back-test on historical data: for your leagues/teams, compute the share of even sums and see where your model beats the margin, even slightly.
Checklist Before You Click: When 'Even' Fits and When It Doesn’t
Choose 'Total Even — Yes' when settlement rules are clear and the game script is predictable in pace and endgame management. In football, that’s often evenly matched pairs prone to draws; in hockey, matchups that frequently reach overtime or create empty-net scenarios; in basketball, only if you have a concrete model for pace, foul rates, and rotations (otherwise it’s better to pass). Remember: odd/even isn’t about “who wins”, it’s about the sum. The clearer you understand how that sum is produced in a given game, the farther your bet is from a coin flip.
